Japan's defense spending, projected to reach two percent of GDP by 2028, will represent the third-largest defense budget in the world by that point, transforming a country that has been constitutionally constrained from offensive military capabilities into a significant military power. The transformation includes not just budget increases but qualitative shifts: long-range strike capabilities, cyber and space warfare units, and planning frameworks that anticipate active combat operations rather than purely defensive postures.
Regional neighbors have reacted with concern that reflects both genuine security calculation and historical memory of Japanese militarism. South Korea, despite its own security alignment with Japan through US alliance frameworks, has been diplomatically cautious in welcoming Japanese rearmament given domestic political sensitivities. China's formal protests are expected and somewhat theatrical, but its military planners are undoubtedly incorporating a remilitarizing Japan into their strategic calculations.
