The International Organization for Migration estimates that climate-related factors contributed to 21.5 million new displacements in 2025, with the numbers expected to grow significantly over the next two decades as sea level rise accelerates and extreme weather events become more frequent and severe. Low-lying Pacific island nations including Tuvalu and Kiribati are already negotiating managed migration frameworks with Australia and New Zealand as their territorial viability comes into question.
International refugee law as codified in the 1951 Refugee Convention does not recognize climate change as a qualifying grounds for refugee status, leaving climate-displaced persons without formal legal protection under the primary international human rights framework. Efforts to negotiate a climate displacement protocol have proceeded slowly and face resistance from nations reluctant to assume legal obligations toward potential climate migrants from vulnerable developing nations.
