Classified and unclassified analysis of scenarios involving closure or severe disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping consistently shows global oil prices exceeding 150 to 200 dollars per barrel within days of a sustained blockade, triggering immediate economic contraction in import-dependent economies. The most vulnerable nations are those in South and East Asia that import the majority of their energy needs through Gulf shipping lanes.
Strategic petroleum reserves maintained by the US and IEA member nations provide roughly 90 days of buffer capacity under normal drawdown rates, but a full Hormuz closure would require drawdown at rates that existing infrastructure cannot sustain without rationing. Military scenarios for reopening the strait consistently show timelines measured in weeks to months given the defensive mining, missile, and naval denial capabilities Iran has developed specifically to deter exactly this kind of military pressure.
